Oh really

It is being maintained by some of those in the know about such things that the imminent Michael Jackson movie, This Is It – a rushed compilation of archival footage, rehearsals, classic performances and new material, all presented in HD – will throw all notions of conventional earning to the ground and take in a staggering $250 million over its first five days of release.  This is based on advanced sales, which are inordinately strong, and the apparently insatiable demand for the movie that exists among the viewing public.

Why do I feel like they’re in for a big – and disappointing – surprise?

I’m hardly the target audience for this production, so I won’t try to extrapolate my own lack of interest onto the public as a whole, but it remains the case that the only people I’ve seen talking about this thing are media analysts and those who were directly involved in producing it.  I spend a lot of time in theatres and music shops and public places, and I talk to lots of people about these things, and not one of them – not a single one – has shown even the slightest awareness that This Is It exists or that the’yre supposed to be flocking to it.

The “new” single (actually written by Jackson and Paul Anka in the early 80s for another artist who ended up performing it many times) after which the movie was named received its radio debut a few days ago, and the response was underwhelming.  The song itself is only so-so – it’s more remarkable for the production values, which are immense; orchestration, back-up singing and synth effects were added seamlessly to what was previously just a voice and a piano – and CNN reports that, on average, only about half of the radio stations to which the song was sent for its debut performance actually played it within the expected timeframe.  Indeed, it was only the 21st most-played song that day even across the stations that actually played it, and the numbers could only go down from there.

So can the 21st most-played song presage the single biggest film opening in the history of Hollywood?  It’s hard to say.  Look at the viewing public’s appetite for concert films in general.  The original report from Deadline Hollywood above notes that This Is It is outselling the previous record-holder for advance sales – the Hannah Montana: Best of Both Worlds concert movie – 2 to 1 in the same timeframe.  That’s nice, but keep it all in perspective: it only earned about $70 million overall (albeit in a more limited release; still, this is the record-holder), and it would be difficult to say that Michael Jackson’s star is really any higher than Hannah Montana’s, at this point.  His recent death will certainly be a bump, as will the wider release, but will it be a $180 million bump in the first five days?  I don’t think so.

Other concert features performed even less spectacularly.  The Scorsese/Rolling Stones concert doc Shine a Light – which was great – had a worldwide haul of about $14 million.  U2 3D earned $22 million.  It’s not a huge field, although the modest budgets typically involved ensure a good return on investment.

Anyway, I’m not predicting a flop opening for This Is It.  Its advance ticket sales really have been strong, so there’s clearly an interest, but it’s not an interest I’m seeing anywhere other than in news reports about it.  If I were feeling extravagant, I’d put the five-day haul at $100 million – no more – but more likely in the $70 – $80 million range.  Be sure to check back in two weeks to see how it pans out.